Dominating the news today is the pandemic coronavirus or COVID 19. The viral infection that was believed to start in Wuhan, China near the end of 2019 has now spread over most of the globe. It is unique in that its hosts are often asymptomatic but infectious for days making its spread so effective. It also seems to have the potential to be somewhat lethal especially in the elderly, immunocompromised, and those with preexisting heart disease. What is still unknown are the long lasting effects of those who survive the initial infection.
The response to contain coronavirus by countries has differed greatly with some imposing almost draconian shut downs to those who have had measured responses. We have seen some health care systems get overwhelmed like Italy’s which concerns other countries in the West about their hospitals too.
Unfortunately, there is not a whole lot that can be done in most countries to contain the disease. Had the infection been stopped early perhaps the rest of the world would have been spared. However, the nature of the infection and the asymptomatic presentation by many led it to spread quickly and widely before anyone had a good feel for the danger. This means we are now in a place where we have to acquire herd immunity to protect ourselves.
Herd immunity (having enough people immune to the disease so that it can’t spread effectively) can only be acquired in one of two ways: immunization or overcoming the illness. Since it is too soon to have a vaccine developed we are left with only the option of having enough people acquire the viral infection and develop their own immunity. With the lethality of the infection for those who are susceptible – this poses the risk of flooding the hospitals all at once leaving people without proper medical care (ventilators, etc.).
What does all this mean? It means we have to get our population infected but not fast and all at once. A slow burn that will keep the hospitals busy but not too busy. If you shut things down too soon, you run the risk of having a vulnerable population as soon as you open up activities like gatherings and dining out. If you wait too late, you run the risk of crashing your system today. The right answer is probably unknowable but important to keep in mind.
On top of these considerations is the fact that draconian closures of businesses affects the economy and the ability of people to earn money and support themselves. A real possibility is that we will now be forced to keep this prolonged closure of businesses to prevent a spike. The cost to jobs and social stability will be immense and lead to unpredictable social pressures on politicians. It is indeed a dangerous tightrope we walk.
Aaron Pomerantz is the host of the Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Snarkiness podcast.Direct Download Link
show notes Life, Liberty, & the Pursuit of Snarkiness: The show that I appeared on with Aaron Pomerantz.
Pomerantz on Twitter: @libertysnark
Flattening the curve: A good resource on what flattening the curve means and how you do it.
Episode 080: My previous appearance on Life, Liberty, & the Pursuit of Snarkiness.
Made Simply Web Site Creations: This is the great, affordable website service that built my wife’s podcast site. I cannot recommend this company more to someone looking for creating a website.
Always Andy’s Mom: Home of my wife, Marcy’s, podcast for parents grieving or those looking to help them.
YouTube for Paradocs: Here you can watch the video of my late son singing his solo on the Paradocs YouTube page.
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