There’s more GREAT wine being made now than at any time in human history so why doesn’t the future look great for wine???
โ Related Article:
A Natural Solution: https://timatkin.com/a-natural-solution/
Alder Yarrow: https://www.vinography.com/2023/01/the-wine-industry-is-headed-for-self-inflicted-decrepitude
Selling a Younger Generation on Wine: https://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2023/01/selling-a-younger-generation-on-wine
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50 Comments
I know how I can enhance my wine palateโฆinvite me over to taste all those high end comp bottles! ๐๐ท
Educating people on why the wine they are buying is cool is what finally got me into wine. I needed a reason to go explore and personally it felt like there was a ton of intimidating knowledge checks that i needed to understand to not get swindled. Media portrayal of the wine world as stuffy doesn't help, and some of it actually is, but most of the wine people i've engaged with have been nothing but excited to talk about it. I think your channel and others like Wineking, Wine Folly, Konstantin Baum, and V is for Vino are doing an amazing job making this information easily accessible. I really enjoy watching the videos you all put out and I literally would not be currently pursuing a UC Davis cert of wine making if it weren't for you all. Thank you for the all the content, and I hope more people continue to tune in and get excited about the wines around them.
Not spending much of money on Bourgogne wine these days
It's over priced due to high demands , would be smart to wait until the heat is cooled down in the future
A lot of people around me still believe the myth that you need to spend 100's of $ to get good wine. Half of that is just not knowing. The other half is being afraid to expand beyond their generic sweet-tooth "crowd pleaser" wines. They doubt until they cave and actually try things…if they try new things at all.
WineMoney&Song Is the US Wine Market Dying? This episode addresses the subject.
im a boomer who will never stop experiencing the greatness of wine but i understand that people are drinking less because of health issues.i believe wine is good for your health and being happy is part of good health. thank you for this video
if fine wine goes down. I buy up. i hope the wine market goes bust. they made their money…
Well, to me the biggest issue, which you alluded to and is the issue for most of the problems in the world is the growing inequality economically and politically. Everything is doomed, not just the wine industry. In terms of wine, big wine companies dominate the media and market. The rich cause the prices of the most famous wines to be inflated. The younger generation can't afford to explore even if they wanted to.
On the other hand, the Internet and certain platforms provide some democratic aspects to consumption in that we can rate and vote for what we like, but even then we're still at the whims of the Jeff Bezos of the world, what they choose to push down our throats and their algorithms.
That being said, the wine industry is a lot like travel and restaurants. If you have the money, you can vacation with a jet set lifestyle and frequent Michelin star restaurants. Others choose to go on cruises and organized tours. Alternatively, you can choose to backpack and explore lesser known countries, get to know local people (their culture, food, drinks, etc.), eat great street food, go to dive bars, etc. And those things can be done in affordable ways with a little knowledge, curiosity and courage. However, many Americans don't even have a passport and if they're lucky enough to have paid vacation time, they just go to the same place they go every year. It's the same with wine. We need honest guides to help people explore in affordable but more authentic ways. Yeah, maybe a YouTube Rick Steves/Lonely Planet for wine can help.
maybe with reduced demand the good stuff will get cheaper?
really good vid!
Great video and completely agree that we need to make wine fun again. Young drinkers need to embrace the journey and excitement of uncovering and ultimately learning about a new wine. When talking about wine I think it important for reviewers to embrace all styles of wine as well. Wine will always be "expensive" and thus somewhat of a niche but we can all do a better job of communicating what makes this beverage so special and fun and to let people know that it's alright to take a flyer on that $30-$50 bottle of wine they may be hesitant about because they haven't had it before.
I read the article and the key takeaway for me is the trend towards avoid drinking alcohol. I read that a non alcoholic โwineโstore recently opened in Paris proving the point. If regions such Priorat, Bordeaux, Champagne, Sardinia and Valpolicella where able to make dry high quality wines without the alcohol, I would total buy tons of it.
Is wine a niche product? No, itโs a complicated product. The knowledge you need to understand it is way high than with hard liquor/spirts. With spirits, there isnโt a huge emphasis on the terror and verity. With London dry gin, itโs just taking a neutral grain spirt, adding botanicals and juniper, then distilling it with no added sugar allowed.
Great video
I kind of think most of the reduction in consumption is coming from the bulk wine market. I don't think this is something enthusiasts need to be worried about, good wine for enthusiasts is still going to be very available and premium collector wine is not losing value. If the bulk wine industry suffers and loses customers, it shouldn't effect us as consumers very much.
We are in the midst of a culture change people are generally drinking less and palates are changing, most of the wine out there is generic trash that's too hard to sift through so the new generation of nerdy wine drinkers are leaning towards the natural wine scene because they aren't fixated on something having to taste a certain way and want something good to drink with a cool story, the price gap between good and bad stuff is ever increasing especially with the investment world and everyone is trying to make a buck so the good stuff goes away and the prices go to a point where only a few can buy it and those people are dying by the day so the industry is slowly eating itself into destruction
Kind of a click-baity title, but nice it was nice seeing something different from your usual tastings. To paraphrase Mark Twain: The reports of wine's death are greatly exaggerated. Yes, sales of wine (and alcoholic drinks in general) by volume has been in decline in the US the last few years due to people drinking less, but those numbers neglect to factor in supply-side issues due to COVID with lower production and supply chain issues. I still remember people looking for Dom Perignons and Krugs to ring in the 2022 New Year but no one had them in stock. People are drinking less wine not only in the US but in France and Italy as well. However, people are drinking more wine in developing countries in Eastern Europe, Asia, and parts of Africa commensurate with their rising income levels. In fact, global wine consuption per capita had been growing steadily until it reached its peak in 2007 just before the Great Recession, and is currently at levels just a tad below that. Also, sales by revenue had been increasing steadily year-over-year until the pandemic hit, and once again is on the rise at the same rate or better after the intial shock in 2020 wore off. People may be drinking less wine but companies are making more money. This may not solve the decline in consumers, but that's a industry problem and not a consumer problem. For consumers, there's never been a better time for great wine (if you can afford it) with more regions producing more variety of wines, lowering of tariffs and barriers allowing for more global trade, and better technology and technique that have produced great vintage wines year after year.
Good points. I would drink more wine if I could but I can't open a nice bottle by myself. I can barely drink half a bottle on my own.
There are a lot of doomsday messages out there but yours is constructive commentary on this tough topic. Despite the title, I think your comments are a little more hopeful than others I've come across. Two thoughts… thought #1) I have faith because my own journey (much like yours it sounds like) started with a lot of widely available (ie mass produced) wines (lots of Columbia Crest and Big House) with a couple of high-end, large production wines (i.e. Opus One) sprinkled in by fortunate circumstance. From there, curiosity took over and the internet allowed me to learn and explore which then gave me the confidence to seek out more interesting wines – and my palate evolved. Thought #2) I would suggest that genuinely curious newbies lack confidence and, right now, (like in many other areas of life and society) the trends are more polarizing (i.e. the natural wine movement). Video is a great format – probably the best – and you and others are doing good work here to present a balanced and reasoned approach to help people build confidence. I hope more content providers are inclined to do the same rather than lean into trending positions which, unfortunately, alienate newbies by villainizing wines that many people actually enjoy.
I think every educated person should have tasted at least once in life an excellent, mid-price range, possibly floral wine with a looong finish. I have set aside a 2010 Castelgiocondo aside for just that purpose – as an eye-opener. I won't care if that makes them get into wine, I just want people to understand what wine IS. And supermarket wine aint it.
The elevated pricing and taxes make dificult buying good wine..
The truth of the matter is that good wine unfortunately in most cases is more expensive than other drinks they compete against, as you rightly mention. I think you make a good point about spendable income. Most people simply canโt afford spending hundreds or thousands of dollars, pounds or euros on good wine. You need a fairly decent house income to enjoy the above average wines. I personally get super excited by wine, there are indeed many mediocre wines out there but absolutely many great and very exciting wines as well.
I drank Mouton, the Leovilles and the Pichons- great wines for sure. But searching for a bargain i would go for Chรขteau du retout! Gorgeous quality at a reasonable price! Go for itโฆexcellent wine is affordable! Even or especially in Bordeaux.
I really appreciate the transparency here. I am 30–just started drinking wine seriously maybe 2-3 years ago. Finished up WSET1 and WSET2 is scheduled this summer; I feel like I'm the only person I know that wants to find new bottles and isn't just reaching for something of a known quality (Meomi comes to mind). I am interested in hearing more from your channel about new areas/varieties (and especially smaller producers that aren't as known but from traditional appelations) to try that offer good value. Thanks for sharing!
Based on the insane price surges of fine wines like Bordeaux, Burgundy, Champagne, Barolo, Napa, etc., you would think that wine consumption is at an all time high. Why is it the case that prices seem to be surging over the past few years for the fine wines if wine consumption is decreasing?
About the benchmarks, most people who are big in the old guard of wine could buy 47 cheval blanc for under $100 and top wines from DRC and Leroy for ~$200, now those wines are $5000-$20000+ and new releases that may be a couple hundred dollars, still insane, and won't be ready yo drink for 20+ years. There will have to be a class of wine with classic flavors from classic grapes that aren't insane in price. Exotic grapes and potential fads like "natural" wines can only do so much.
Another major issue is the current propensity of wine journalists to rate everything ridiculously highly rating every vintage of every flagship wine at 97+ just comes off as insincere especially when those same journalists go out and rate a bunch of $15-20 wines as 95+. This is not a new problem but needs to be addressed. Finally, social media has to be reckoned with because, let's face it, most of the wine social media is either goofy stuff or uniteresting stat blocks that people not in this won't care about.
The internet is a gamechanger. Now people with busy lives can learn about wine easily and readily come across wines from producers or regions theyยดd never have tried otherwise. This free access to knowledge though may well have made it far harder to make money out of wine.
A lot depends on the health/strength of the economy, locally and internationally.
High quality wine such as the traditional Grand Crus, Barolos, and Champagne is going to be juuuuuuust fine. High end producers will continue selling to their base. Many of the newer lower end producers however will consolidate or wither on the vine and disappear from over-saturation of the market. If you're drinking Rolls Royce's, the customers are going to stick around regardless. It's the battle of the Kias and Fords (imagine 100s of brands like these competing against one another) that is going to be rough.
Yes, I've already switched back to Kool-aid, NOT! BTW, if you have too much comped wine, send me a case, lol. Thanks for your great content.
Iโm an amateur collector, but $30-$40 is about the highest Iโll spend in general. There are many great and versatile wines in that price range. But I just shake my head when vintners charge $100, $300, $1000, $3000 for a single bottle of wine. Just doesnโt make sense to spend that much for 99.9% of us. Prices have to come down, or more and more people will opt for other beverages.
agree. It took me 5 years diving into the fine wines. Before that, whatever drinkable below $20. Also the oncoming recession will play a role. Now the income gap is even larger, mad inflation, hence less ppl afford drinking wines. I also stopped buying fine wines seeing the prices declining over the past few months, and as you pointed out there are loads of fine wines, not just mediocre wines, coming out to the market every year. It is true that for wine producers the outlook is not so shiny.
Great video. I have so many thoughts. Wine seems to defy basic economics. If there is more great wine than ever, and the number of buyers is declining, why are benchmark bottles more expensive than ever? I understand why young people don't want to get into wine when the advice is "to understand Bordeaux you need to drink Lafite, for Burgundy you need to drink Roumier and DRC, for CdP you need to drink Rayas. Ideally many vintages of each". Then why even try??? It feels like wine as a hobby is ruined by rich collectors with $$$$ who hold more than they could ever hope to drink. Wine's shelf stability allows it to be hoarded like art, gold, jewelry. But wine is meant to be consumed and enjoyed. I love wine myself, but the state of the market is a real shame. I feel that the world of fine wine might be doomed as long as the best bottles are purchased by the uber wealthy who accumulate giant cellars full of wine, most of which, they never drink.
This was an interesting video and lots of food for thought. Economics and inflation play a big role as the classic premium wines have become even more expensive. So, the average consumer might opt for simpler choices.
The key point I think is communication and education, because if wine tries to compete as just an alcoholic beverage, it will lose for sure.
Enjoying and learning about wine is experiencing culture, history, art, agriculture, and so many other aspects.
For wine to remain relevant, it has to move past this elitist, snobbish attitude towards people that aren't familiar with it.
I think YouTube and Instagram are great platforms for new people to get into wine. What you, Konstantin, Agnes, and the Wine King are doing is making wine much more relatable and approachable.
A final word about "supermarket" wines, I feel that this is a bit of a misnomer. As at supermarkets there is a huge range of options. Yes, there is Yellowtail, Gallo, JP Chenet, etc. But you can also find E.Guigal, Faustino, good CCR, CDP, Saint–Emillion, and many other quality wines.
Very nice content Matthew. I did not even know, that there is a wine crisis, but maybe prices will drop down because of this. Good for us๐๐
Isn't alcohol consumption in general dropping? Driven by the younger generation. I actually think they will likely get back to it once they hit their 30s. However, the laws of supply and demand apply. I don't see wines prices going down, so it seems demand is high. On the local market here they are up close to 30% in 3 years.
Let me start by saying that I absolutely loved your video. Thank you for that!
I started by reading the report and articles that youโve linked and was actually very surprised that the wine industry (sales actually) was declining over the last couple of years in the US (would love to see a graph like figure 13 in the SVB report for worldwide sales, including by regions).
I agree with the conclusions and wine can be indeed less attractive to people in their 20s or early 30s (I really got into wine myself when I was about 35-36), but the disparity in wine as the beverage of choice between people aged 35-64 and 65+ is just striking (again, US only). I wonder if trends in Europe (especially CEE since you mentioned that sales in France are falling off a cliff) and Asia are making up for that.
The price of wine may be another deterring factor. I live in Poland and can easily order wine from all over Europe (online shops from Poland, Italy, Germany, Spainโฆ) at really good prices. But not everyone can afford good wine bottles that will make you fall in love with this beverage, even if your sweet spot is EUR 15-20ish โ this is still expensive compared to other alcoholic beverages.
Iโm sure that itโs easier to get hooked if you have a chance to visit a couple of wineries when on vacation, especially if you are in a prime wine growing region. Staying near Montalcino for a couple of weeks certainly helped in my case ๐
And donโt worry about conveying your excitement about wine โ youโre great at doing that in every single one of your videos! Please donโt get offended, but my wife recently said when I was watching you trying Super Toscans โ โoh, youโre watching that โgolden retriever with a ballโ man againโโฆ
You are getting better and better.
Luckily in Europe, in any wine country, you always find objectively excellent wine at low price points (12-20โฌ for independant winemakers). If the people in the US can't access great wine for the same price points at the same scale of Europe is maybe because they are not a wine country and need a few decades more to get better, which leads to wine just been seen as a higher class hobby. A part from ABC maybe, all US wine we taste blind in Europe is a complete rip-off, Napa needs to be humbled especially.
Supply and demand will regulate the prices.
If you can't afford a wine, why should the wine maker care about you? And why should you care about those wine maker? In Europe you can live your whole wine drinking life without having to create any controversy.
Nice video, Iโd recommend one thing, people travel more than ever and while on your travels go off the beaten path and find a small winery (I am a small producer myself) and do a tasting, people will usually give you their time and convey their passion also the wine will be different then what you would buy in the supermarket even those from familiar grapes
My hot take is that the current trend in funky looking natural wine, made by passionate individuals, rather than large corporations or dynasties, have the potential to โsaveโ the wine industry.
The old guard need to let the younger drinkers get in on the ground floor, and wait for them to have the disposable income to spend on classic bottles.
What glass is this wine glass? Very elegant.
I agree with you about a video platform perhaps being one way to truly reach a younger generation and get them interested in wine. And I just wanted to throw in my own perspective about 'grocery store wine'. I've now been working for a few years trying to change that perception. Trying to bring in more exciting wines where I work, Trying to engage with customers and pass along a little passion and info on some of these smaller brand wines. But it's also tough, not only do I get pushback from others in my company, who don't quite 'get' what I'm doing. I also get it from some of the distributors I have to buy wine through. And especially when it comes to some of the huge distributors, I get a lot of pushback. You would think as long as I'm pushing something they distribute, things would be fine. But in actuality, the major distributors are getting money to help 'protect' certain mass produced wine. So it's hard and frustrating when the distributors aren't working with me either. In a sense they are causing a lot of the problems themselves. If all they are going to do is to try to promote 'junk wine'. And then wonder why isn't the younger generation getting onboard? Anyway just some views from my side of things.
And just to go over a few more things. I think a lot of people are intimidated by the world of wine, sometimes even intelligent, successful people. It's almost as if they are worried they will get laughed at if they mispronounce a wine or just don't have a certain knowledge about wine or a wine in general. As someone who works in wine retail, it can be hard to 'break the ice' and to get people to open up and talk about what they might be looking for. So for a customer shopping for wine, it can be a bit like going someplace where the person 'just works there' and doesn't have any knowledge to pass along. Or the customer is intimidated if they realize the retail person does actually know something about wine. Because they are worried there lack of wine knowledge will become apparent.
Your take on the "natural" wine movement is spot on… Although started from an excellent place its most ardent fans have become clicky and cool hipsters. The fact they hang out at this cool "natural" wine bar or shop and are in the know elevates their personal and social media cred. It's disingenuous and reminds me just as much as the stereotype of the stuffy old typically male fine dining sommeliers of the past… I'm supremely interested in wine but have no interest in a 20-something hipster selling me a crazily priced bottle of Plonk and using descriptors like "crunchy"… Ughhh… And the new marketing rules with these wines are that the label has to have a certain esoteric and interesting cool look to it… Possibly the cork sealed in wax… It has to come from a charismatic yet eccentric producer, the grape or grapes need to be obscure and from some lesser-known region… Quite often these wines aren't that good… They may be interesting to taste but to get through a whole bottle is another story… Of course, there are many amazing "natural" wines out there… But a quick look at a website of a local wine shop and wine bar here in L.A.'s Silverlake neighborhood shows me bottle after bottle that's obscenely expensive from nonclassic regions and obscure grape varietals plus producers I've never heard of (and I was a wine buyer for 8 years in a Spectator GA winning resto that had 1.5 million in inventory)… Some of these prices rival Burgundy, Bordeaux, and even Barolo or Napa. And these "natural" wine shops are popping up everywhere… It's a total trend but I'm not sure there are enough people that can afford to support it…
This was a great discussion and I really appreciated the way you addressed the various points. It made me think through my own wine-tasting existence which began in the early-eighties. I was lucky because my dad was a wine geek and he started me on wine very young (I had the French thing going on of having a few drops of wine in my water at dinner, probably by the age of ten or so). A coupe of things come to mind as I think back. The first is that I was "lucky" in a sense because the very best wines (i.e. DRC) could be bought if you decided it was a priority. You could, for example, choose to buy a plane ticket to France or you could buy a bottle of Romanรฉe Conti. Today, a bottle of Romanรฉe Conti, if you could get it, would cost you ten tickets to France. I'm not saying it was cheap back then, but it was a choice you could make if you were making a middle-of-the-road salary. These wines are now only for the rich (which explains why I haven't had a DRC wine in nearly 40 years). So the very top-end, which as a restaurant worker in my early 20s, I could imagine drinking, I can't imagine drinking now when I have a far larger salary–not rich, but adequate.
I also think that there is a huge problem in the US with restaurant markups. Whereas in France you could find an excellent bottle on a wine list for 25-30 euros, in the States, the standard 300% markup for bottles that retail for less than $50-60 means that one of the best possible moments to educate people is lost. Add to that the snobbery of too many sommeliers, and a great opportunity to spread the word is lost: the moment when people are in the best possible mood and ready to spend. But if the wine costs more than the dinner, people aren't going to experiment, try new things, listen and learn.
Finally, my own wine route has been the following:
Whatever my dad would open. Sometimes great, sometimes not, and didn't really understand what I was drinking. I once stole a bottle of wine from his cellar, opened it, and then threw it away because it was so sweet. Yup. Yquem.
Anyway, I started by liking California Cabs and Chardonnays. Then turned to Chateauneuf, leaving CA wines behind. From there I began to like Bordeaux. Finally, I discovered Burgundy (which was my undoing). The Burgundy rabbit hole is endless. But now that burgundy has become ridiculously expensive (village wines selling for $50-70) I'm turning towards more obscure wines. Eastern Europe, under-appreciated wines from France and Itally, etc. It's actually gotten me excited again and in a way I feel like I've come full circle because I know so little about them. Which is way more fun that being an "authority."
Totally agree with your last comment how conversations evolve and even improve with Wine shared at the table. Cheers Doc!!!
Why would I drink Sulphites when I can drink additive free Whiskey or Tequila? The wine industry deserves whatโs coming!
Word.
Good wine shouldn't be a niche product imo. Good wine should be the standard. There are a lot of good wines out there! I import wines from small to medium size producers in Italy. Not the big names, because like you said these wines are pricewise not accesible anymore for people with an average budget, but family producers, artisans in there own way. They produce amazing wines with a story. A story I like to share with my customers. I also like it when winemakers have a range of wines. Entry wines to get to know the winemaker, and if you are curious you can taste the more refined and structured wines. In that way customers can grow and learn to appreciate specific wines. To me the future is not that bad… as long as we have these small and medium winemakers being able to follow their ambitions
I feel like there should be a lot of space for value priced good wines (Egobodegas comes to mind with a bunch of good Spanish blends!) -I guess the problem is exposure. People ask me for recommendations, but they arenโt invested enough to go to a wine store so I have to find the few gems at the supermarket to point out.